Hmmm… the basho still hasn’t started. While waiting, I thought I would just see what happens if I calculated DoS for Yoshikaze during his three previous performances at M2. I’ll tell you what… the results aren’t pretty. During Yoshikaze’s first time as M2, he faced so many rikishi for the first time and he had so many short histories with other rikishi that I thought I needed to indicate this on the Moneyshot Score Sheet. So, I put a * next to all the DoS scores for rikishi that Yoshikaze was facing for the first time, and I put a + next to all the DoS scores for rikishi that Yoshikaze had a short bout history with. As you can see on the charts below, one of these symbols appeared on almost every bout he fought.
I think Yoshikaze’s first performance at M2 really shows the limitations of the DoS score. It really wasn’t a very good reading. His DoS score ended up being way lower than later performances against those same rikishi showed it should have been. However, I do think that newbie rikishi have a bit of an advantage the first time they face the big guys because they are a bit of an unknown quantity. What do you all think?
Now, as you can see, Yoshikaze is not exactly the story of a rikishi who is getting better and better. It will be interesting to see how he does this basho, but based on the direction of his DoS scores, I am certainly not going to be predicting that he will do well at M2 this time around.
I guess its time to stop and reflect a bit on the DoS score. It seems to be telling us the obvious. That is both good and bad. Its good because it means that it is, to at least some degree, an accurate measure of difficulty of schedule. Its bad because it does take a bit of effort to calculate, and if it only tells us what we already know, then… maybe its not worth much…
However, I think calculating the DoS score does have some benefits. First, for anyone new to Sumo, it is going to give you a good sense of bout histories. By keeping track of the DoS score, you should find out a lot about how your rikishi stands in comparison to the rikishi he faces. Well, I guess we will see how it goes.
Enough chatter: here are the charts: