Sumo as Science: Hakuho and Asashoryu

This is the second to last Sumo as Science post for this basho.  Tomorrow, I will post a summary of everything I think I have learned in this little Sumo as Science series.  But, first, as promised, here are the run-ups for Asashoryu and Hakuho on their final bashos as Ozeki.

If anything, the DoS scores for these two guys are higher than they should be (remember, the lower the score, the stronger the record against their opponents).  Both of them faced opponents they had never faced before (Iwakiyama for Asashoryu and Tochiozan for Hakuho)… After facing and beating these two rikishi, Asashoryu’s final record against Iwakiyama was 15 wins and one loss; meanwhile Hakuho’s current record against Tochiozan is 12 wins and 0 losses.  Additionally, Asashoryu had a short bout history against Tokitsuumi at that time (only four bouts)… Asashoryu’s final record against Toktsuumi was 7 wins and 1 loss; meanwhile Hakuho had a short bout history against Toyonoshima (only two bouts)… Hakuho’s current record against Toyonoshima is 20 wins and 2 losses.

Based on what I have seen from the charts,  rikishi who are overranked (see Yoshikaze) have DoS above 40.  Good Ozeki have DoS in the low to mid 20s (see Haruma and Baruto). Weak Ozeki are in the DoS range (30 to 40) where kachikoshi is iffy (See Kotooshu – with the exception of Hatsu 2010, when he was a pretty strong Ozeki for brief window)  And Ozekis on the verge of promotion have sub-20 DoS (see below).  I am talking things out with De Gama on a theory of how many wins we can expect at the various DoS score levels – you’ll have to wait for that for the final post of Sumo as Science.  What I can tell you now is that what we’ve seen in the rikishi profiled in this series fits with what we (De Gama and I) expect from the theory we are hatching.

Here are your charts:

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2 responses to “Sumo as Science: Hakuho and Asashoryu

  1. Pingback: Sumo as Science: Summary | Sumo & Stogies

  2. Hajinochikara

    Just something that might be of interest…. Baruto’s DoS last tournament was 23.67, which is a nice DoS for an Ozeki. I will be interested to see how his 14-1 record affects his DoS score for this coming basho… that 14-1 record will definitely drop his DoS score, and it seems quite possible that he will have the sub-20 DoS that I have argued is an indication that he is ready for promotion. [out of curiosity, I went back and looked at what happened when Baruto went 14-1 just before he was promoted to Ozeki… going into that basho, his DoS was 29.5… going into the next basho, his DoS dropped to 17… I don’t know if the same thing will happen this time, but…]

    If his DoS is 18 or 19, then he we can expect that he will get at least 11 wins… that means to pick up the jun-yusho, he will have to exceed expectations by 2 or 3 wins – that is getting into iffy territory.

    A more comfortable DoS would be 16 or 17. In that case we can expect that he will get at least 12 wins, meaning that he would only have to exceed expectations by 1 or 2 wins to get the yusho. Under normal conditions, that seems definitely doable, if his training was good between the bashos.

    I kind of think his performance will put him in that 16 or 17 range, but I also think the stress of being up for Yokozuna promotion will make him perform worse than his DoS expectations.

    Thoughts on whether Baruto will make it?

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