This is the second to last Sumo as Science post for this basho. Tomorrow, I will post a summary of everything I think I have learned in this little Sumo as Science series. But, first, as promised, here are the run-ups for Asashoryu and Hakuho on their final bashos as Ozeki.
If anything, the DoS scores for these two guys are higher than they should be (remember, the lower the score, the stronger the record against their opponents). Both of them faced opponents they had never faced before (Iwakiyama for Asashoryu and Tochiozan for Hakuho)… After facing and beating these two rikishi, Asashoryu’s final record against Iwakiyama was 15 wins and one loss; meanwhile Hakuho’s current record against Tochiozan is 12 wins and 0 losses. Additionally, Asashoryu had a short bout history against Tokitsuumi at that time (only four bouts)… Asashoryu’s final record against Toktsuumi was 7 wins and 1 loss; meanwhile Hakuho had a short bout history against Toyonoshima (only two bouts)… Hakuho’s current record against Toyonoshima is 20 wins and 2 losses.
Based on what I have seen from the charts, rikishi who are overranked (see Yoshikaze) have DoS above 40. Good Ozeki have DoS in the low to mid 20s (see Haruma and Baruto). Weak Ozeki are in the DoS range (30 to 40) where kachikoshi is iffy (See Kotooshu – with the exception of Hatsu 2010, when he was a pretty strong Ozeki for brief window) And Ozekis on the verge of promotion have sub-20 DoS (see below). I am talking things out with De Gama on a theory of how many wins we can expect at the various DoS score levels – you’ll have to wait for that for the final post of Sumo as Science. What I can tell you now is that what we’ve seen in the rikishi profiled in this series fits with what we (De Gama and I) expect from the theory we are hatching.
Here are your charts: