Haru Basho Moneyshot Has Started!

I thought that it might be useful to post two things here:  first, I am posting a list that will take you to a page for your rikishi of choice that has all his bouts organized by opponent.  A big thank you to http://www.sumoreference.com for their amazing site.  Second, I am reposting the Moneyshot Score Sheet.

We’re all looking forward to what you have to say about your rikishi’s progress.  Leave us a comment on our daily reports about how they are doing and what we should expect from them if you have the time or inclination.

Toyonoshima – covered by Screeching Owl

Miyabiyama – covered by Hida

Wakakoyu

Takekaze – covered by Chris

Okinoumi – covered by de Gama

Goeido – covered by Tobermory

Kitataiki – covered by McCarthy

Takayasu – covered by Nigel

Homasho – covered by Briton-Meyer

Toyohibiki ー covered by Connolly

Aoiyama – covered by Daily

Daido – somewhat covered by Inoko

Fujiazuma – covered by Xenwall  (by the way, Fujiazuma’s sumoreference picture is classic!)

Takanoyama – Covered by Montana

And here is the Moneyshot Score Sheet:

Image

And as requested, here is how to calculate daily DoS.  Basically, you look up the five bouts that your rikishi has fought against his opponent PREVIOUS to the current basho.  Count the losses.  If the rikishi lost all 5, the DoS is 5.  If the rikishi lost 4, the DoS is 4, if the rikishi lost 3, then DoS is 3, if the rikishi lost 2, then the DoS is 2, if the rikishi lost 1, then the DoS is 1, and yes, you guessed it, if the rikishi lost 0, then the DoS is 0.  The higher the number, the more difficult the bout is likely to be.

The calculation is based on the last five bouts because we want to get a sense of how the two are matched against each other that is more stable than looking at just one bout, but we don’t want to look at their entire bout history because if it stretches into the deep reaches of the past, it isn’t likely to predict the difficulty of their match now.

Finally, there are two possible problems to calculating DoS, if the rikishi and his opponent have faced each other less than five times, and if they have never faced each other before.  Here is a link to the three possible ways to calculate DoS (normal, short bout history, first time to face each other).  Click here.

4 responses to “Haru Basho Moneyshot Has Started!

  1. Briton-Meyer, can you edit this post to link to how to score a DoS?

    Cheers,

    Daly

  2. Done.

  3. So.. what’s the DoW score? I dig this system.

    • DoW is a first attempt at figuring out to measure the Ganbatta Factor of each rikishi. Nigel pointed out that DoS alone doesn’t fully measure the Ganbatta Factor, so we thought about

      1) Difficulty of Wins: summing the daily DoS scores for each bout the rikishi wins (but leaving out the daily DoS score for any bouts the rikishi loses);

      2) dividing the DoW by the DoS and

      3) making a correspondence between the percentage of wins a riksihi gets over the course 75 bouts used to calculate DoS, and the percentage of wins that might translate to over 15 bouts fought over the course of the basho. So each DoS score would then correspond to a number of expected wins over the course of the basho and we could then divide the actual wins by the expected wins.

      I am a big fan of the third option: dividing the actual wins by the expected wins, but for this basho, we decided to go with option number 1: Difficulty of Wins – only adding the daily DoS for the bouts a rikishi wins.

      You can see the discussion start here, and conclude here. Also, you can see an example of how the score sheet is filled out here.

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